Last night, the Secretary of State announced that there are a little over 631,000 early and provisional ballots left to count. When all is said and done, the total vote in Arizona will be somewhere between 2.2 and 2.3 million (as I predicted) – a turnout of 75%.
Participation in Arizona was lower than 2008 and 2004, but higher than 2000. There is still a slight chance that the total vote count could eclipse the 2,320,851 set in 2008.
There is some grumbling that Romney won fewer votes in Arizona than McCain. First, if it were true, it would be understandable, since McCain is from Arizona. Second, it’s probably not true. So far, Romney won 937k votes. With 631k left to count, if Romney continues to win them at the same 54% clip (and there’s no reason, he shouldn’t) he will end up with somewhere between 1.2 and 1.3 million votes, which is right around what McCain earned in 2008.
On Tuesday, Arizona did what Arizona does. There was no surge. Those who always vote – voted. Those who don’t typically vote – didn’t.
When the dust settles, I think we will see participation at about 42% Republican, 33% Democrat, and 25% Independent and PND.
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Bio: Paul Bentz is Vice President, Accounts and Strategy at HighGround, Inc., one of Arizona's leading public affairs companies. Paul has more than a decade of experience in campaign management creating and directing mail, web, collateral, and grassroots strategy for local initiatives, statewide issues and candidate campaigns.