Obama, Carmona up in Arizona, poll reports on changing demography
posted by Terry Greene Sterling
at 13 October, 10:05 PM 0
Two years ago, National Journal writer/editor Ron Brownstein wrote a very smart piece explaining America’s changing demography. It details the the “generational mismatch” between two clashing electorates — old white people and young brown people. In a battle over scant resources, the young people naturally want good schools and solid infrastructure. (I’m with the kids, by the way.) Old white people want their Medicare and Social Security. And they don’t necessarily want to spend money on the young.
We all see the generational mismatch in the 2012 presidential election — Barack Obama represents the young brown and Mitt Romney represents old white.
I’ve sensed for a long time that this demographic change is sweeping over Arizona, and recently wrote a piece in The Atlantic detailing how Arizona is turning purple at the local level and up through the Carmona-Flake senate race.
But a brand new Rocky Mountain Poll indicates Arizona’s voters clearly reflect the demographic changes in their presidential selection. Obama and Romney are neck-and-neck, the poll says, and Obama leads among likely voters by two points. And here’s the old-grey-young-brown indicator: Obama overwhelmingly leads among Hispanics and young people, while Romney leads among old people and Caucasians.
Among likely voters, Rich Carmona leads Jeff Flake in the senate race.
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